Energy system analysis identifies different pathways for energy system transformation

Often, electrification is a key element in the transition, but it is not the only one. To know which solution is appropriate for a particular sector, an energy system analysis can be conducted. This involves looking at different solutions based on a number of parameters, such as economics or climate impact.

– Energy systems analysis is a fairly broad concept that often involves evaluating and analyzing technologies and solutions. We look at development pathways and value chains, whether it is economically viable, and we also look at regulation and governance – what is needed for this to happen and what conditions need to be in place for a particular development to be possible, says Karin Pettersson. She is a researcher at RISE and has many years of experience in energy systems analysis in a number of different research projects and assignments.

For example, Sweden wants to become a climate neutral country by 2045. An energy system model can be used to find out what measures are needed to achieve this goal. This looks at a variety of factors: what will be the energy demand for housing, services, transportation, and industry, what resources and conversion technologies are available, and what do they cost?

– Then you look at these things under different conditions, and you have the ability to vary a lot of things and do different iterations to see what combinations of technologies, solutions, and tools might be required to get there. You get the full range of needs, resources, and solutions.

In general, a combination of solutions is the key, says Karin Pettersson. And it's not just about replacing fossil fuels with renewables.

–  We also have to look at whether there are opportunities to reduce the demand for energy use or to make it more efficient in different ways. This should always be kept in mind.

Different solutions for different industries

There is no general answer to the question of which solutions are most effective and which complement or compete with each other. It depends partly on the sector being analyzed and partly on the time perspective.

A clear example of how different solutions can be relevant is the transport sector. Both electrification and biofuels play a role here, as do measures that can reduce demand for transportation.

– In the case of passenger cars, electrification has increased dramatically in recent years. This trend will continue and there are already cost efficiencies. But the situation is different when it comes to heavy trucks, shipping, and perhaps especially aviation. There, electrification is a long way off and may not even be the best solution, says Karin Pettersson.

She cites the example of aviation: while the passenger car fleet could be fully electrified by 2050, this may only apply to about half of air travel, and only to that part of travel that accounts for about 15 percent of emissions. Bio-based aviation fuels are likely to be more important in meeting climate goals.

– This is the kind of analysis that is done to determine how different policies need to complement each other to achieve different goals – and in different time frames. When you look at and think about the factors that actually influence a particular technology solution or development path, you can sometimes be surprised at what the result looks like.

Complex energy systems drive demand

We are moving towards an increasingly integrated energy system where many things are connected to the electricity system in one way or another.

– Different parts are much more interconnected than before. This increases the need to look at the whole energy system as a whole in order to find different solutions and synergies, says Karin Pettersson.

RISE works extensively on energy system analysis and has in-depth knowledge of different parts of the system. In addition, a national energy system model is being developed where it will be possible to analyse likely developments in terms of the behavior of different actors, something that is often not captured in this type of model.

– For example, the model will make it possible to analyse whether we in Sweden have sufficient policy instruments to achieve our climate goals. Or is more needed? The results should be of interest to business and industry, as well as policymakers.