Energy system model for efficient transition

Time is running out to achieve the climate goals of the Paris Agreement. The consensus is that we need to switch from fossil fuels to renewables. But how can this be done?

The systems involved are complex, the actors are numerous and the factors that influence them are numerous as well. For example, how does a particular policy affect different parts of the chain and do the hoped-for benefits really materialise?

First system dynamics model of the Swedish energy system 

The most common approach among Swedish authorities is the use of various types of optimisation models. 

"However, we have chosen to develop a system dynamics model. This is the first comprehensive model for the Swedish energy system and we are following in the footsteps of countries such as Japan and Iceland, which already have this type of model," says Inger-Lise Svensson, Head of the Systems Transition Department at RISE.

A system dynamics model differs from an optimisation model in that it allows for a more holistic approach to complex systems. This makes it ideal for those who want to understand how different policies or technical solutions can affect the energy system as a whole and what an action can mean at scale.

"It is particularly useful for authorities, large energy companies and large industries that want to gain insight into how different policies or technology shifts can affect the Swedish system."

Will help to transform the energy system 

The model is designed to inform the transition from fossil fuels to renewables in Sweden. It examines the effect and consequences of different solutions on the Swedish energy system.

The model allows us to see how a particular solution affects the wider system. We examine complex relationships and interactions. This means that the model can help decision-makers in the transition of the energy system. Navigating the complex landscape of lobbying and politics is challenging. Having the ability to examine solutions and instruments individually and collectively, and to understand their interactions, is invaluable.

System dynamics modelling is adept at integrating data from diverse systems and rapidly calculating outcomes under different scenarios. These scenarios could encompass emissions targets or the impact of new market mechanisms on the energy system. This speed is a significant advantage over optimisation models, which require more resources.

"It is beneficial to be able to rapidly compare different scenarios to ascertain the outcome of varying inputs. This enhances interactivity with the model."

Energy system model that examines the whole system

For instance, consider a political decision to have a certain number of electric vehicles by 2045.

The model can be used to answer questions such as: What impact will this have on other parts of the system and will we meet climate targets? What will be the financial impact? How will it affect consumers? What will be the impact on the energy market of such policy decisions?

Another example is the systemic impact of different degrees of change in heating systems in buildings, such as heat pumps. However, this fuel has alternative uses. Therefore, there are effects further out in the system.

"The electricity you use for heating could have been used for something else. For example, it could affect how well the transport sector meets its targets. Outcomes can be very complex and may not always be what you initially think."

"The most effective way to achieve this is to test the model on actual problems. The model provides a solid foundation for decision-making based on data, rather than subjective opinions," says Inger-Lise Svensson.