VHGgods- Where will future GHG emissions from freight transport occur?

The purpose of this project is to evaluate the magnitude and distribution of the total transport-related emissions from Swedish freight transport today and in the future. The analysis will, with a life cycle perspective and scenario analysis, show how much other sectors are affected by transport-related emissions, as well as how they are affected by the choice of routes for the transport sector's transition.

The results can be used to better understand how the transition of the transport sector affects greenhouse gas emissions overall, and to ensure that Sweden's long-term climate goals can be achieved.

Sweden's long-term climate goal is for national greenhouse gas emissions to be net zero by 2045. For domestic transport, the goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 70 percent by 2030 compared to 2010. Direct emissions from vehicles are included in the emissions from the transport sector, in accordance with internationally agreed reporting of greenhouse gas emissions. However, transportation also contributes to greenhouse gas emissions reported in other sectors. These emissions are caused by the production and distribution of fuel/energy carriers, production, maintenance and scrapping of vehicles, construction, operation and maintenance of transport infrastructure, and impact on land use.

The project will analyse if emissions are expected to occur in Sweden versus internationally. A policy analysis will map how the GHG emissions for the sectors where the transport-related emissions end up are regulated, as well as how existing/proposed policy instruments for freight transport consider transport-related emissions. The policy analysis focus on Sweden and EU but will consider some other selected countries.

The results can be used to better understand how the transition of the transport sector will affect total societal emissions of GHG, to ensure that Sweden’s long-term climate targets can be met. The project will cover road transportation (heavy trucks), shipping (national and international), aviation (national and international) and rail.