Foresight strengthens Sweden's global competitiveness

Accelerating digitalisation, increasing skills required, a clear impact on climate, and major demographic changes. These are some of the factors that will pose major challenges in different parts of society in the future. Dealing with them requires not only future analysis to identify trends and uncertainties, but also a capacity for strategic development and innovation.

– In recent years, Sweden has consistently ranked among the top three most innovative countries in the world. We therefore have a good starting point, and now that the government has decided that Sweden should be one of the world's leading research and innovation countries, it is important to make the most of it, says Cecilia Tall, Business Development Manager Innovation Management at RISE.

Innovation enables the development of new or better solutions that create value for businesses, individuals and society as a whole.

– Innovation management is the key to being successful in the long term, which means implementing systematic innovation work in the organisation. This is partly about organisational and leadership issues, but it is also very much about knowing what is relevant to focus on, she says.

Undesirable scenarios are also important

To know this, foresight is an important concept. It means working methodically with futures analysis to identify long-term trends, opportunities, and uncertainties.

– Many people are used to working strategically by focusing on the desired or most likely scenario. But it is important to also consider the possible – and undesirable – alternatives, says Andreas Johansson, Marketing Manager at RISE.

He explains that when an analysis produces, for example, ten possible scenarios, it is common to select three of them as a starting point for creating strategies and action plans.

– But with the uncertainties we live with today – with disruptive technological developments, climate crises and geopolitics – where all outcomes are equally unlikely, you then choose not to include seven out of ten outcomes that have the potential to topple your business or organisation or make it thrive, he says.

– Foresight provides knowledge about the future, says Andreas Johansson. – You need to be able to act intelligently and proactively, even though things can go either way. We live in a fast-changing world, so we need to do everything we can to facilitate rapid adaptation to new disruptive changes.

Science-based approaches for robust policies

Foresight provides opportunities to stay ahead of the curve, strengthening both competitiveness and resilience. By combining foresight with strong innovation management, Swedish companies can streamline their innovation processes, giving Sweden a strategic advantage on the global stage. RISE contributes to the work of making Sweden an increasingly future-oriented nation, for example by working with government, academia and industry.

–  An important basis is to have a collective knowledge, and we are working to get government agencies and other societal actors to have common scenarios and strategies for the future, says Andreas Johansson.

In 2023, when the government was reviewing the Swedish research and innovation policy, the Swedish Innovation Agency Vinnova was asked to provide input on policy design and changes. Vinnova was then supported by RISE.

– As our organisation consists of around 3,000 experts in most sectors, with combined expertise in areas ranging from technology development and societal needs to regulatory and licensing processes, we have every opportunity to strengthen Sweden's competitiveness and innovation capacity, says Cecilia Tall.

RISE also leads many cross-sector research collaborations that enable innovation at the interface between different technologies.

– We can act as a catalyst for innovation in multi-stakeholder collaborations. At the same time, we help companies and organisations develop robust strategies for the future, for example through business intelligence and trend analysis, scenario planning and impact assessment. Together, this forms an important foundation for sustainable growth and social development, she says.