Heat pumps can bring flexibility to the energy system

Many households in Europe still rely on fossil fuels to heat their homes. In the transition away from fossil fuel heating, heat pumps are part of the solution - and a solution that more and more people are looking to.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has developed a roadmap for achieving zero emissions by 2050, and one of the most cost-effective ways is for at least 50 per cent of the heating needs of our buildings worldwide to be met by heat pump technology.

Sweden leads the way

A major change has already taken place in Sweden. We are unique in the world when it comes to the proportion of small houses that use heat pumps – about 70 percent of houses have heat pumps of some kind and almost 30 percent of the total heat demand in Sweden's buildings is covered by heat pumps. In the EU's Green Deal and the Fit for 55 policy package, there is already an ambition to encourage and accelerate the pace of heat pump installations in the rest of the EU. With the Ukraine crisis, the aim is to do this even faster in order to reduce dependence on natural gas from Russia. The Commission is currently working hard on the EU Heat Pump Action Plan, which will be published shortly, to remove barriers and bring about this much needed acceleration.

"It's about doubling the pace and getting a lot of heat pumps on the market in the next five years and beyond. So in many countries there is now a great demand and a driving force among ordinary people to replace their gas heating, for example. They like to look at what we have done in Sweden, where we started phasing out oil heating 20 years ago and showed that it works well, even in a cold country like ours," says Caroline Haglund Stignor, Senior Researcher and Focus Area Manager for Energy Efficiency.

Many benefits for industry

Today, the greatest interest is in European households, where most of the heat pumps will be installed in the coming years. But the technology also has benefits for industry and commercial buildings. There is a limit to the heat a heat pump can deliver, but the technology is advancing and today heat pumps are being developed that can deliver heat up to 200 degrees.

There is also great potential for this technology in industrial processes, in our district heating systems and in commercial buildings. Especially if you need cooling in one part of the process or building and heating in another.

"Heat pump technology can provide both efficiently. It is currently used to some extent in commercial buildings, in the food and pulp and paper industries and in some of our district heating systems, but has potential in other and more diverse industries. Not least where there are drying processes," says Caroline Haglund Stignor.

There is interest from industry, although the use is not yet as widespread as in buildings. One reason is that it has been cheap to use other types of fuel, both fossil and bio-based. As a result, there has been little incentive to improve energy efficiency.

"But as people want to phase out fossil fuels and use bio-based raw materials for other purposes, heat pump technology has become more interesting, not least as the price of both fuels has risen. It will also become increasingly important to minimise risk, as we do not really know how much energy prices will fluctuate and rise and fall during the energy system transformation that needs to take place and is already underway. By improving energy efficiency, for example by using heat pump technology, you can reduce the risk of high energy costs," says Caroline Haglund-Stignor.

Contributing to flexibility

For the large-scale electrification of society to succeed, more flexible use of electricity is needed. This is stated in the government's electrification strategy. Again, heat pumps are useful, because their inherent inertia in the systems they heat (or cool) can smooth out fluctuations in energy use.

"The buildings and systems in which a heat pump operates are heated and cooled very slowly. This means that you can switch them on and off and shift production back and forth for a few hours without affecting your home. This allows you to balance peaks and troughs in energy consumption," says Caroline Haglund-Stignor.

"For example, the heat pump can be switched off during peak hours in the morning and afternoon, or while you are charging your electric car. There are also advantages for industry," says Caroline Haglund-Stignor:

"The bigger the heat storage you work towards, the more energy you can move."

Fluctuating electricity prices and the increased load on the energy system as a result of electrification have rapidly changed the conditions in the electricity market. When RISE completed a research project on intelligent and flexible control of heat pumps in the autumn of 2021, it was still not very profitable for the end user.

"But the companies were very happy because now they knew what to do when the demand came. And then it took two months and electricity prices shot up, and now the situation is completely different," says Caroline Haglund Stignor. Most manufacturers now offer the possibility of controlling the operation of the heat pump according to a variable electricity price. At the same time, it is becoming more common for owners of small houses to have an electricity contract with a variable electricity price, and there are opportunities to save money while supporting the electricity system by using less electricity when demand is high and prices are high.

Years of experience at RISE

The great interest in Europe creates both jobs and export opportunities for Swedish companies, whose experience and expertise are being put to good use. Both established and new companies have recently announced major investments to increase production. RISE has been researching heat pumps since they became commonplace in Sweden some two decades ago. Several research projects are also carried out in collaboration with companies to help them develop their products to meet future needs and demand.

RISE also houses the Heat Pump Centre, a programme office and information centre for the IEA's International Cooperation Programme for Heat Pump Technology. The programme facilitates collaboration between researchers and industry around the world, works with knowledge exchange between different countries, policy makers and the IEA, and disseminates independent information on heat pump technology.

"RISE supports industry and society in several ways when it comes to heat pump technology. One is through the test bed and various research projects with industry, and the other is through the operation of the Heat Pump Centre," says Caroline Haglund Stignor.