More and more companies and organisations are discovering the benefits of the strategic foresight approach, which involves looking at longer time horizons and understanding how uncertainties, trends and developments today will affect the future. According to RISE experts, this work does not have to be difficult or extensive.
– What is important is to discuss the future and reason together within the company or organisation. This will help the organisation to be better prepared, even if we don't know what the future holds. That's why our foresight is also important; it's a catalyst to initiate discussions and new ways of thinking in order to make decisions that affect how well the company is equipped for the future, says Kristina Mjörnell, Business Developer at RISE.
The Foresight has been developed by RISE, where a large number of experts in different fields have jointly identified the most important uncertainties and changes that spatial planning actors will face in the next decade. The uncertainties highlight some of the choices and issues that will be important to discuss.
– The foresight points to a number of uncertainties, but it is not a set of facts about what will happen, says Kristina Mjörnell.
One of the most important questions is how we balance our current resources with our future challenges.
Building the ability to act in uncertainty
The Foresight was presented and launched during a live webinar on 17 June 2024. A panel of invited experts discussed how to build the ability to act in uncertainty, both today and in the future. One of the guests during the webinar was Linda Teng, Concept Manager studentbostäder at Akademiska Hus, who explained how they work to plan and act for the future.
– One of the most important questions is how to balance our current resources with future challenges. We need to ensure a vibrant campus environment and more housing opportunities, while staying within our climate budget. So how much new construction can we really afford in the future, given the climate? To address these uncertainties, we need to understand how to make better use of the buildings and environments we already have. A key tool to help us do this is a digitised building stock, which provides a better picture of how our buildings are currently being used. And a crucial part of understanding how we should work in the future, she says.
Another guest during the webinar was Johannes Berg, investigation manager for the digitisation of the transport system at Trafikverket, who explained how they think and act about the future.
– We see that there is a huge technological development in society and especially in vehicles, which are connected and to some extent self-driving. We have our national plan, a new version of which will probably be published in 2025, and it shows what investments we think will be necessary in the next 12 years. We know roughly how vehicles will develop in the future. If society can make full use of the systems in vehicles and develop services based on connectivity, what would the transport system look like in the future and what would that mean for the benefit of our investments? That's how we think and plan, he explains.
Thinking outside the box
Looking into the future and making decisions that could have major consequences for your own organisation can seem difficult, almost impossible.
Magnus Eriksson is head of foresight and strategy at RISE. He recognises that there is a great need to be able to manage future scenarios and plan operations in a better way.
– RISE's foresight expertise is in demand and we receive different types of requests, and we support both large and small companies with these issues, as well as a number of municipalities and other organisations, he explains.
Magnus Eriksson also explains that foresight expertise can be used at an early stage in various initiatives.
– When it comes to security of supply, our methodology also works, which is interesting and important for society as a whole, he says.
Increased foresight is about developing the organisation, creating more forward-looking decisions and strengthening competitiveness when it comes to companies.
A foresight programme usually starts with an analysis of trends and the world around us, followed by other parts depending on the customer's needs.
– Based on the analysis of trends and the business environment, we then build a number of possible, alternative futures. There are many different types of futures, such as probable, expected, unexpected and desired. We often try to limit ourselves to working with four different types of future scenarios, which are quite different from each other, Eriksson explains and continues:
Scenario analysis is valuable for working with the customer's desired future. We also work with visions, strategies and target images. In this way, we help the customer to plan for future possibilities and to move towards a desired future. Ultimately, it's about helping the client to prioritise and resource the business to move towards the vision. In many ways, it's about helping the customer navigate and mobilise in today's complex and fast-moving world.
Tailored assignments based on needs
RISE has the opportunity to contribute to foresight work in many different ways.
– We often have tailor-made projects together with our clients. But it really depends on the client's need. In some cases, a broad environment analysis and an understanding of the uncertainties in the world around us may be enough. Since we have access to 3,000 experts at RISE, we can effectively gather facts about all possible areas. This can be crucial, not least because of the rapid development of technology. When we then build it up with scenarios, vision work and resources, we get closer to the business, which requires more work, he explains.
Another part of foresight is future-proofing, which is about strengthening the ability to manage and act under uncertainty.
Magnus Eriksson explains:
– When it comes to building future skills, we help organisations to work with foresight tools. For example, we have experts on site with clients for several months to train the organisation, which gives a completely different understanding of how to work and act in the future, he says, concluding:
– Increased future-proofing is about developing the business, creating more forward-looking decisions and strengthening competitiveness when we talk about companies. Many people are comfortable and want to do what they have always done. But if you want to develop, you have to be one step ahead and be more prepared, concludes Magnus Eriksson.
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What is foresight?
Foresight is a scientific field with its roots in intelligence gathering in the post-World War II era. Developed by global corporations in the 1960s and 1970s, the field began to spread internationally and into the public sector in the 1980s and 1990s, and has since established itself as an interdisciplinary field encompassing everything from technology and innovation, to political, environmental, economic and social issues, to humanities and arts.
