Towards sustainable road freight - scenario analysis

With existing and decided policy measures and developments as of today (2024), Sweden will not meet its climate goals for the transport sector. Sweden also cannot meet the EU's 2030 commitments without extensive purchases of emission allowances, and the long-term goal of net-zero by 2045 is at risk. Furthermore, the resilience of the transport sector to critical external events is limited and will decrease with the increasing electrification if no action is taken. In this project, scenarios are analyzed regarding how the Swedish road freight transport sector can contribute to achieving the climate goals, as well as how the resilience of the transport system develops for these scenarios. The resilience analysis focuses on changes that involve system-wide renewal. 

The scenarios represent different pathways for achieving targets, where various technologies contribute to differing extents and where the road-based freight transport sector contributes to the necessary emissions reductions to varying degrees. The scenarios entail different consequences for, among other things, the vehicle fleet, infrastructure, fuels, and logistics solutions. The analyses are conducted using a dynamic energy system model in which Sweden's energy system and transport sector are described as an integrated system. The transport sector is described in high detail, incorporating economics, technological development, actor behavior, policy measures, and other legislation. 

The analysis also considers input from industry and societal stakeholders, collected through workshops and dialogue meetings where discussions are based on the developed scenarios and related assumptions. The model is used to demonstrate how different policy measures can be employed to achieve the targets. 

The project is conducted by RISE in collaboration with 2030-sekretariatet and with contributions from DB Schenker and Volvo Group. Many more of the important stakeholders will be involved in the project through workshops and dialogue meetings.