Scenario planning at NTI Gymnasiet and the City of Halmstad

What needs to be done, and what are the consequences?

In the scenario matrix, recommendations are given on what the principals need to think about to ensure, as far as possible, that the teaching can be conducted with maintained quality. It is about various things, from adapting the scheduling so that public transport is not overloaded, dealing with budget issues, digital infrastructure and digital learning resources, and qualified teachers’ availability. They must keep up with the update of current rules and guidelines and quickly adapt the planning to how the conditions change.

What needs to be done depends on the situation. In scenario A, the school is open as usual. There is also readiness for a worsening. In scenario B, restrictions have been introduced to prevent the spread of infection, and all or part of the teaching takes place online. Scenario C mostly looks like scenario B, but this is about more powerful restrictions that apply for a more extended period.

The scenarios might have different consequences for student health and equivalence. For example, there is a risk that the school will receive an educational debt to students who are not given sufficient conditions to follow the teaching when the school’s premises are closed. A prolonged corona pandemic can also lead to the economy being affected, and the school not getting sufficient resources. We must take all this into account during planning.

Scenario planning gives a better picture and facilitates a common focus

“In the City of Halmstad, the education and labour market administration has used the scenario matrix to get a better picture of what situation they are currently in,” says Arja Holmstedt-Svensson, Quality Manager at the City of Halmstad.

“We ended up in scenarios A and B, but we have to be ready for scenario C. For some time, each sub-business has used the scenario matrix to map the current situation and plan. We are now finished with a compilation for the entire administration, which will make it easier to take the next step when conditions change. It’s about trying to be proactive and about being able to relate to us not knowing how it will be. That is why we need to plan for several possible developments and have a constant dialogue about how we can best move forward.”

“A new control model is underway for Halmstad municipality, and even here, scenario planning can function as a suitable tool at school owner level together with the various managers. It will be easier to create a common focus,” says Arja Holmstedt-Svensson.

“Scenario planning gives us a better picture of the current situation and helps us identify areas where collaboration is needed. It is a simple and good model that makes it easier to agree on the starting point and get a consensus on the continued work. Above all, it is important to understand that there are no quick and easy solutions. We must be open to the outside world and be able to act based on what is happening.”

Broader perspectives give better viewing

Ellen Lindkvist is head of school at NTI Gymnasiet, which is one of RISE’s school partners. She was informed by RISE that the scenario matrix was underway.

“The principals at NTI Gymnasiet had previously received key directives from Academedia’s group management that there might be a distance start of school by the autumn, and they were planning for several situations. When we in the management team got access to the scenario matrix, it was like using new glasses. It gave us other perspectives, and we recommended our principals to use it in their planning for the new academic year.”

Ellen Lindqvist says that the management team was particularly attached to the concept of educational debt. It captures something that you had not thought of before.

“During the spring semester, it went better than expected. When we problematized the teaching, we noticed some students we needed to care about. Have all students received the education they are entitled to, or is it missing for certain students? What do we need to do to them for this?”

Analyze the current situation and redraw the map

“The scenario matrix provides a serious input to the entire corona situation,” says Sarah Stridfeldt, head of school at NTI Gymnasiet.

“The content and method provide an almost invaluable help both for the principals and for us. It provides a common language and a common starting point and focuses on the value of continuity and the importance of a constant discussion. We are in scenarios A and B and need to be ready for the next step if the pandemic increases. Planning two to four weeks ahead, considering several possible sequences of events, gives the teachers good support. Foresight makes you able to react fast if something happens.”

“The management team at NTI Gymnasiet and the principals of the various schools analyze the situation every week and redraw the map according to what reality looks like,” adds Sarah Stridfeldt.

“The problem is that we do not know how long this situation will continue. It is necessary to change, but it is also important to ensure that the teaching is of sufficiently high quality and that the staff have a sustainable everyday life. If teachers need to be at home and teach remotely, there needs to be a classroom tutor. Principals and teachers are struggling, but everyday life is complex, and the near future is uncertain.”

A long-term, sustainable organization is needed

“The distribution of resources to the school is already under pressure in many places, and if municipalities reduce school fees, the situation can, in the worst case, be strained. Maybe the school gets fewer resources at the same time as more staff is needed. Then it will be difficult,” says Ellen Lindqvist.

“A long-term sustainable organization, where there is structure and order and order, has probably never been more important than now. It will apply for a while longer, maybe even for a couple of years. But enough resources are needed for this to work. Now it is the municipalities that are responsible, through school fees. Maybe the state needs to step in to preserve all students’ right to an equal education if the municipalities’ finances deteriorate?”

“Halmstad Municipality and Sweden’s municipalities and regions (SKR) have together made an impact assessment of how the corona pandemic in affected young people’s right to education, health and development this spring,” says Arja Holmstedt Svensson. Based on it, SKR has produced a list of what school principals need to think about. It should function as a national model.

“What happens when students may no longer go to school? How does the overall picture look like? What has the school done to keep track of and help students when they need to be home? It is important to examine which groups have benefited from the increased freedom and find out which ones have been disadvantaged. There are important lessons to be learned here. It is also about thinking about the students’ mental health and ensuring that student health can catch those who need extra help and support.”

At NTI Gymnasiet, they work with a kind of warning system to quickly detect which students are at risk. “The teachers document the students’ absence and study results, and the results are analyzed monthly, both locally and at the principal level,” says Ellen Lindqvist.

“If absenteeism increases and there are downward changes in study results, we must react quickly to find out what is due and how we can solve the problem. Is it about corona-related reasons, or is it something else? Students’ health and well-being are a central part of their schooling. Therefore, we must continuously discuss this and see how we can provide the right psychosocial conditions for all students. The help needed must be available.”

Look forward - and think about endurance

“Now it is important to avoid a rhetoric that means that the school should return to how it looked and worked before the corona pandemic,” emphasizes Arja Holmstedt Svensson. “The school needs to take advantage of what worked better during the pandemic and build on it.”

“We can not be content with the fact that distance education has not worked well for all student groups. Instead, we need to find out how we can give them the support they need. Is it perhaps about smaller groups, other communication channels, or a clearer and better follow-up? There is a lot to grab here! It is also necessary to realize that students’ learning does not just happen when they are in school. Learning is going on all the time. We must not forget that.”

“The school must be able to adapt to rapid changes, but that presupposes that school leaders and teachers have the strength to persevere for a long time,” says Ellen Lindqvist.

“We who work at the school owner level must give ourselves time to think through the current situation properly and to analyze what needs to be done. What organizational changes are required? What will the resource distribution look like in the next few weeks? Here we have great help and benefit from the scenario matrix. It gives us the support we need when we, together with the principals, try to look ahead and be long term.”

“In the past week, many teachers at our schools have been at home for care and children. When there is high absenteeism among teachers, it sometimes becomes difficult to make it work,” says Ellen Lindqvist. That is why it is sometimes necessary to rethink. We must be able to create air and space.”

“We will probably be in this situation longer than we think. It is hard, challenging and exciting at the same time. We have opportunities to do good for the continued business, but we have to create the proven experience ourselves afterwards. The teachers are awesome! They do everything they can to network and educate themselves. But for them to endure the long run, they must think marathon and not sprint. It is simply not possible to keep full speed all the time.”

“Information and communication are among the key factors required for this to work,” says Sarah Stridfeldt. “At the school owner level, it is important to take it all piece by piece and help the principals to plan and prioritize.”

“There is a lot that the school owners does not have enough time to handle. It means that we must review our requirements and expectations of them. Everyone must be able to come to work with a good feeling in their stomach. So far, so good, and that is good enough. Now we will do our best to ensure that all students get the best teaching possible!”

This article was originally written for the collaborative project Skola Hemma.