Understanding the future is the key to success

In a world where the pace of change is accelerating and uncertainty is constant, it is vital not only to anticipate the future, but to actively shape it. Foresight and innovation management are two powerful tools in this work.

– You can see foresight as a method for strategic planning and a way of working to look ahead, over longer time horizons than companies usually do, and then explore uncertainties and alternative futures, says Magnus Carl Eriksson, Head of Foresight & Strategy at RISE.

Taken from intelligence operations during the Second World War

The concept of foresight has its origins in the English word 'foresight', a scientific field that dates back to intelligence operations after the Second World War. It has since evolved into a multidisciplinary field that encompasses everything from technology and innovation to political, environmental, economic and social issues. 

– It is something that most companies and organisations can benefit from, says Magnus Carl Eriksson.

– The overall aim is to better understand future opportunities and threats, to prepare for the future, to develop robust strategies and action plans, and to create a shared understanding of the world around us and the direction we need to take, he says. One of the most important aspects of working with foresight is to experiment with a variety of options in your analyses.

– It can be tempting to focus on the future scenarios that are desirable, and perhaps even those that are likely. But in order to be fully prepared and able to adapt, it is important to also consider the possible future paths.

Desirable, probable and possible. All three perspectives must therefore be present to ensure the possibility of rapid adaptation and to create a solid basis for long-term growth.

– This is the most reliable way to have enough evidence to be proactive and reduce the risk of having to react to crises and changes.

Reliable and relevant futures

Innovation of any kind will be a critical factor for viable businesses, so foresight provides a good foundation for successful innovation efforts. This is where the need for innovation management comes in - processes, tools and a systematic approach that builds and sustains continuous development of products, services and strategies. Successful innovation management is based on the ability to anticipate credible future scenarios.

– Put simply, it's about making sure you don't have a development department developing new models of typewriters when the whole world wants computers, says Cecilia Tall, Business Development Manager Innovation Management at RISE.

It is therefore important to be able to decide on the direction of the innovation work, but also on organisational issues such as when it is time to scale up, the extent to which resources can be optimised and how responsibilities should be allocated.

– There needs to be a degree of freedom in the organisation to achieve the desired outcome in the long term. This in turn requires courageous leaders who dare to drive the improvement work and let go of some of the control, she says.

Work can be adapted to different levels of ambition

Organisations that want to develop strategies and ways of working for emerging trends and market changes can approach RISE to start work on foresight and innovation management.

– We adapt to different levels of ambition, and one of the more ambitious approaches is where we build foresight expertise – future knowledge – into the client and the organisation. We often create bespoke workshops to fully customise the work. We work with the customer using methods such as business intelligence and trend analysis, uncertainty analysis, future scenarios, impact analysis and strategic roadmaps, says Magnus Carl Eriksson.

When it comes to innovation management in particular, RISE can also help with the implementation of working methods and certification according to existing ISO standards.

– One of our strengths is that we have a team of over 3,000 experts, which means we can offer both breadth and depth in most challenges and areas. We have expertise in everything from cybersecurity and circular material flows to resource management and energy transition, says Magnus Carl Eriksson.