Would a collection of typewriter manufacturers focused on reducing their own emissions have invented the computer? Are we about to get the equivalent of the world's lowest-emission typewriters, when what we need is something completely different?
This is the rhetorical question posed by RISE innovation expert Dennis Pamlin.
"The climate summit in Egypt in november 2022 showed the full range of innovation: from those who are really passionate about an idea that can revolutionise a whole way of life, to those who have found extremely innovative ways of measuring, so that what is actually destroying the environment suddenly appears to be zero emissions," says Dennis Pamlin: "That's why we believe a change of mindset is needed. We need to move from each sector chasing its own emissions and those of its suppliers to asking what we really need to live well in a world of nearly 11 billion people.
It's a shift in approach that may sound like a play on words, but it makes a difference in what gets done. As an example, Pamlin points to Ireland's transport policy: the Green Isle, like many other places, was working to electrify its car fleet and roads so that it could continue to drive and transport as it does today. The change came when they did a human needs scan and asked the questions "why do we drive?" and "what do we transport?" and "what do we transport?
"Then it became more interesting to think about how food could be grown closer to those who will consume it, how cities could be planned differently and, last but not least, how the status of car ownership could be changed".
Many Swedish innovations
Pamlin points out that this is an area where there is as much Swedish innovation as in emissions reduction. One example is the clothing company Houdini, which helps people move away from fast fashion and large wardrobes to fewer and more sustainable clothes that support a lifestyle where we live more in harmony with nature.
"This is a transformative change, and it is necessary. Value chains are becoming more and more integrated. This means that chasing emissions reductions is not enough. Of course green steel is important, but we should not be producing steel for oil rigs and fossil-fuelled aircraft at all, because these are activities we may not even have in the future. And what comes to the steelworks should come from the urban environment itself, from urban mining, rather than from linear flows between mine and waste. "Starting from what we need and where we need it opens up a completely different way of working.
What we are working on is complementing this with measurements of the solutions we have to avoid emissions.
Focus on avoiding emissions
Pamlin points out that no company is set up to reduce emissions in its supply chain, it is set up to meet a need. So how do you meet the real needs of a fair world of 11 billion people? RISE is part of the Mission Innovation collaboration launched in the wake of the Paris Agreement by Bill Gates and other business leaders, along with the 22 governments with the largest innovation budgets. RISE runs the Net-Zero Compatible Innovations Initiative, and Dennis Pamlin explains that it has taken on the responsibility of measuring the positive impact of new solutions to help companies find the solutions the world needs.
"We're good at measuring the problem: emissions. But what we're working on is complementing that with measures of the solutions, of how we avoid emissions: avoided emissions. Then we can find innovations that we don't even know are solutions today. And investing in a greener future for people in the global South who, because of poverty, have very low emissions today will become as interesting as investing in industrial plants in the North.
30 years ago there was no internet. Electric cars and renewable energy were not seen as serious options. Even when the Kyoto agreement was signed, zero-emission alternatives were still seen as something that could take a share of the market. Now we are talking about transforming the whole economy. This requires such disruptive innovations as digitalisation, streaming and AI. With a long background in the environmental movement, Dennis Pamlin has a habit of trying to explain how the world needs to change.
"But there is a difference when you come with Swedish start-ups, IT companies and other innovators. When we came from the environmental movement, people thought change meant going into caves. When companies with exciting solutions say the same thing, many people think, 'Wow, what's new now? This makes it easier to imagine a future where driving, flying and eating meat are not the norm - because we can simply find more attractive ways to meet, travel and eat. Emissions still have to go, but the impetus comes from creating something new and better.
Time to implement solutions
At COP27, RISE worked in partnership with the OECD and ICLEI, which brings together the world's leading regions and cities. Three new tools were launched and a climate business incubator competition was launched with a partner in India. Dennis Pamlin is now looking forward to returning from the summit and starting to implement the solutions.
"Sweden is a country where, together with the Swedish Energy Agency, we have already identified solutions that could reduce global emissions by one gigatonne of carbon dioxide equivalent - 20 times Sweden's total emissions - so it's hard to find a more exciting country to work in.
