Region Skåne needed to know how electricity would be used in the future. With the help of electricity forecasts, the region now has a tool that can help develop both society and the economy.
Skåne has one of the lowest levels of self-sufficiency in electricity in Europe, which causes a number of problems, including being a barrier to the establishment of new businesses.
"The whole issue of electricity and energy is very important to society, both in terms of business development and for Skåne to be a good place to live and work. That's why we've been working on the energy issue in various forums for a long time," says Johanna Lundström, social analyst for the Region of Skåne.
Increasing Skåne's self-sufficiency
Among other things, the Skåne Energy Commission has been set up, which brings together several municipalities and authorities, as well as private energy companies and representatives from the business community.
The main goal is to increase Skåne's energy self-sufficiency from 15 to 50 percent by 2030. One part of this has been to make forecasts of future electricity demand.
"We already have capacity constraints in some parts of the grid, and we know that we will use more electricity in the future. Power peaks will be higher and more irregular. That's why power forecasting is very interesting for us," says Johanna Lundström.
The idea is that the power forecasts will form the basis for both network development plans - by showing where and when demand is expected to arise - and energy and development plans at both municipal and regional level.
"It's not really that different from other types of forecasts that we've been working on for many years, such as population or employment forecasts. The benefit should be that those who have to make decisions have a good basis, whether it's a network owner or a municipality," says Johanna Lundström.
"But one difference is that we are in the middle of an energy transition and it has to happen quickly, so it is especially important to have this kind of information. The issue of electricity and energy is still fairly new to many people, and historically it has not received as much attention as, for example, employment. This means that there is still a lack of knowledge about these issues.
Using data to analyse developments
To develop the impact forecasts, Region Skåne turned to RISE.
"We have used a lot of data from the region to look at developments, and that is probably what makes our tool special. An important basis has also been various available data such as energy statistics, vehicle statistics, transport demand statistics and energy declarations. We have also used some data from network companies on the behaviour of different types of consumers. Then it's a matter of putting it all together and adding assumptions about the future," says Jonas Dahl, senior researcher at RISE.
The result is a modelling tool that can estimate the expected demand for electricity per square kilometre and display it on maps. The forecasts have already proved useful.
"We now have a basis that serves as a common foundation when we discuss these issues within the Skåne Impact Commission. The tool is flexible, and when we have a dialogue, it can be adapted to local conditions, for example when you need to take account of businesses," says Johanna Lundström.
Whenever we have a new issue, RISE has been able to bring in someone who is an expert in that particular area, which has made it very easy for us
The tool will raise awareness
The hope is that the tool will raise the level of knowledge - for example, that a municipality needs to be on its toes and contact the grid company in time to get the electricity it needs.
"The basic issue is climate change and the fact that we need to change. In Sweden it takes a very long time to build electricity grids, so hopefully this can create an understanding of why things need to move a bit faster," says Johanna Lundström.
RISE has also benefited from the work for future research.
"The value for us has been that we have been able to break it down into small parts and see which parts are needed and which parts we need to research to get an even better understanding in the future. We have already started to use this understanding in several other projects," says Jonas Dahl.
Interdisciplinary expertise is key
The impact forecasting project has already been developed. RISE is now working on the same for the entire Southern Sweden Regional Collaboration, which includes Skåne together with Blekinge, Halland, Jönköping, Kalmar and Kronoberg.
"We could never have done it without RISE. Not only for all the knowledge they have, but also for their flexible approach and wealth of ideas. "I haven't experienced anyone saying 'no, that's not possible', which is fantastic," says Johanna Lundström.
She emphasises the interdisciplinary expertise within RISE as an important factor, as energy issues affect all areas of society.
"Whenever we have a new issue, RISE has been able to bring in someone who is an expert in that particular area, which has made it very easy for us.
Power forecasts as a knowledge base
Region Skåne has used RISE to produce electricity forecasts that serve as a knowledge base for both electricity network development and energy and development plans at both municipal and regional level.
The result is a GIS tool that shows the expected demand per square kilometre.
The forecasts are updated annually and are available on the website effektprognoser.se.
